Developing Scenarios for Disaster Risk Reduction

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The disaster risk reduction (DRR) community often lack the tools and expertise to understand the potential impacts of disasters, and of the efficacy of decisions to address them. Scenarios of possible futures provide a tool to cope with uncertainty, especially when risks are not well understood or cannot be quantified. They provide a systematic method for thinking creatively about a variety of possible futures, rather than attempting to accurately predict individual outcomes.

The report provides an accessible guide to scenario analysis and applications for the DRR community, to facilitate the understanding, communication, management, and mitigation of disaster risks. A practical framework is provided to assist practitioners engaging with scenario development. We explore key characteristics of disaster risk scenarios and their associated development methods, and suggest how they can be used effectively.