Sybil Logic Bomb Cyber Catastrophe Stress Test Scenario

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This report shows how some technology companies have become so critical to business productivity that they are systematically important to the global economy. Like the “Systemtically Important Financial Institutions” (SIFIs) – banks that are so interlinked that their failure would cause major impact – we use the term “Systemically Important Technology Enterprises” (SITEs) that identify technology enterprises crucial to international corporate productivity.

In this scenario we take an imaginary SITE, which we call the Sybil Corporation, and investigate the impact on the global economy of an insider attack that introduces a compromise, or ‘Logic Bomb’ into their flagship database product used throughout the corporate world.

Key Findings
The overall effects of the Sybil Logic Bomb are measured in losses to global GDP output over five years (‘GDP@Risk’). The five-year GDP@Risk for the standard or base scenario, S1, is in the order of $4.5 trillion.
The most extreme scenario variant, X1, shows a GDP@Risk of $15 trillion.
In the short term the impact on a standardised portfolio is relatively small.
In the longer term, effectively after the software problem has been rectified in Sybil’s database packages, the effect is a four per cent loss in cumulative returns due to the ‘information malaise’ affecting the global economy.